Accounting for the variation in the confirmed Covid-19 caseload across England


This latest report from UK think tank the New Policy Institute looks at multi-generational households in the Covid19 pandemic.

Using data on older people who share a home with people of working age, NPI recently published a blog that linked this statistic with the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 across English local authority areas. Such a link raises policy questions about the practicability of advice on social distancing for people whose housing conditions make self-isolation impossible. This paper takes that initial finding forward in two ways. The first is to extend the statistical research by developing a model that goes beyond correlation to measure the size of the impact of various socio-economic variables on the confirmed Covid-19 caseload. Alongside the proportion of over-70s who share a home with people of working-age, these variables include overcrowding and local area deprivation. The second is to draw out the policy questions raised by the model.

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