Autumn surprises: possible scenarios for the next phase of Brexit

Brexit negotiations are entering the end game. Over the next few months, the Government must conclude a withdrawal agreement with the European Union (EU) before seeking approval from Parliament in the form of a motion – the so-called ‘meaningful vote’ – on the deal. Only if both these challenges are met, legislation is passed to give effect to the agreement and both the UK and European Parliaments ratify the withdrawal treaty, will the UK leave the EU on 29 March 2019 in an orderly manner and with a transition in place. None of this is certain at the moment. There are multiple scenarios in play. This paper looks at those scenarios and what stands between the Prime Minister and her preferred Brexit in March 2019.

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