Ending the Russo-Ukrainian war: scenarios and consequences

26 February 2024, 6:00 pm – 7:00 pm

Location: Online / Chatham House, 10 St James’s Square, London SW1Y 4LE

Think tank: Chatham House

This event hosted by UK think tank Chatham House will outline some of the possible scenarios for how the end of fighting might come about.

The shape of future Ukrainian, European and global security hangs in the balance. As the war in Ukraine reaches the two year mark, a deadlock has taken hold on the battlefield.

Despite notable success in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions during late 2022, the much-vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive of 2023 encountered stronger and much more disciplined Russian resistance, part leading to current impasse.

Uncertainty remains as to the level of support many of Kyiv’s key Western backers can provide. Particularly in the heat of an election-heavy year. With Russia, notably its economy, now on a war footing, the war’s outcome are unknown and hard to determine.

Chatham House experts have identified four possible scenarios to ending the war and their consequences.  During this session will discuss the following scenarios:

Scenario 1, “Russia wins”: American support or is drawn down or cut off in early 2025. Ukraine struggles to defend itself, let alone push the Russians back. Russia claims victory and the truth of it impossible to avoid. Zelenskyy and his government fall.

Scenario 2, “Ukraine wins”: Ukraine has pushed Russia back from all of its internationally recognised territory. The war is over.

Scenario 3, “Deal”: Forced by either the international community or by circumstance, Russia and Ukraine sign a ceasefire and/or a peace deal.

Scenario 4, “No Deal”: Russia and Ukraine keep on fighting with the same goals. Neither managing a decisive blow but neither showing any interest in a deal.


Event chaired by Orysia Lutsevych.

Orysia Lutsevych – Deputy Director, Russia and Eurasia Programme; Head of the Ukraine Forum

Keir Giles – Senior Consulting Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme

Dr Patricia Lewis – Research Director; Director, International Security Programme

James Nixey – Director, Russia and Eurasia Programme

Natalie Sabanadze – Senior Research Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme