Report

Does it matter if Ukraine loses?

This report from UK think tank the Centre for European Reform argues that Western leaders’ hesitancy to act suggests they are underestimating the impact of Ukraine’s defeat.

Western countries need to decide how much Ukraine’s security matters to them. There seems to be a sizeable gap between most leaders’ rhetoric, supporting Ukraine, and the priorities revealed by their defence spending, weapons delivery and willingness to talk honestly to their voters about the war.

Decisions to provide Kyiv with weapons have often come about after long hesitation, allowing Russia time to plan counter-measures. The latest $60.8 billion US military assistance package has been held up for six months by the internal politics of the Republican Party. And German Chancellor Olaf Scholz doggedly refuses to provide Ukraine with long-range Taurus missiles that would enable it to hit Russian logistic hubs, airbases and infrastructure.

A new policy brief from the Centre for European Reform argues that Western leaders’ hesitancy to act suggests they are underestimating both the impact of Ukraine’s defeat and the West’s ability to prevent it.

‘Does it matter if Ukraine loses?’ sets out the implications to the West if Russia were able to achieve such a victory. These are: 1. Strategic impact on Europe: A vastly increased threat to the rest of Europe from a militarised Russia. 2. Arms smuggling and organised crime: Increased cross-border organised crime and arms-smuggling from Ukraine. 3. Migration: Millions more Ukrainians in Europe, fleeing from the kind of atrocities already seen in occupied areas of Ukraine. 4. Global food security: Damage to Ukrainian food exports would drive migration from vulnerable countries in the Middle East and Africa. 5. Nuclear proliferation: Countries will conclude that having nuclear weapons provides more reliable security than promises of help from allies. 6. Global influence: Diminished international influence for the West, and increased influence for Russia and China.