Why would a third country root for soft Brexit? Views and lessons from Turkey

Dr Yaprak Gursoy, FPC Research Associate and Lecturer at Aston University, outlines some of the implications of Brexit for the UK-Turkey relationship. She points out some of the challenges Turkey has faced in creating its own trade deals due to its customs union with the EU, and how UK-Turkey trade could be further impacted by a no deal or hard Brexit. Dr Gursoy notes that a deal which saw the UK leave the Customs Union would make a future UK-Turkey trade deal on goods impossible to deliver, undermining longstanding trade patterns. Even a future UK-EU trade deal would not automatically include rights for Turkish trade into the UK. The UK is Turkey’s second biggest export destination after Germany and reducing market access would have significant economic implications. The UK’s departure from the EU also weakens Turkey in Brussels, given the UK’s traditional advocacy for closer relations between Europe and Turkey.

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