Report

19 million years of life

This report from UK think tank the Adam Smith Institute puts the case for a real harm reduction policy.

At the Adam Smith Institute, we believe that the Government’s current fixation on prohibitionist policies—epitomised by the Tobacco and Vapes Bill—is a profound misstep that threatens to undermine decades of progress in public health.

Our report, 19 Million Years of Life, presents a robust case for a market-led approach to achieving a smoke-free Britain. While we support the ambition of reducing the harms associated with combustible tobacco, we contend that the proposed generational ban and draconian regulations on vaping represent an illiberal ‘nanny state’ overreach. Such measures risk driving consumers toward an unregulated black market and stifle the very technological innovations that have already helped millions of Britons abandon cigarettes.

The evidence for Tobacco Harm Reduction (THR) is undeniable. By examining the ‘Swedish Model,’ where the widespread availability of low-risk alternatives like snus and nicotine pouches has resulted in the lowest smoking rates in Europe, we can identify a clear roadmap for the United Kingdom. Our research calculates that by fully embracing THR and ensuring that reduced-risk products—such as vapes, pouches, and heated tobacco—remain accessible and affordable, the British public stands to gain a staggering 19 million years of life.

This is not merely a public health triumph; it is an economic necessity that would significantly alleviate the long-term fiscal burden on the NHS. We urge policymakers to pivot away from punitive prohibition and towards a regulatory framework that prioritises consumer choice and scientific reality. Instead of imposing regressive taxes on vapes or banning flavours that assist adults in quitting, the Government should foster an environment that encourages smokers to transition to safer alternatives.

Innovation, not state-mandated restriction, is the definitive key to ending the era of the cigarette. By championing a liberalised approach to harm reduction, the UK can lead the world in public health outcomes while steadfastly defending the fundamental principles of personal responsibility and market freedom.