Event

The rare earth clock: Critical minerals, China’s leverage and the West

This event hosted by UK think tank the Henry Jackson Society examines what is actually at stake as the November deadline approaches.

Critical minerals have moved from a niche supply-chain concern to one of the defining fault lines of great-power competition. China controls roughly 70% of global rare earth mining and up to 90% of processing and refining capacity, and since 2023 has used export licensing – rather than outright bans – to convert that dominance into geopolitical leverage, most recently through a package of controls on rare earths, tungsten and antimony that triggered price spikes of up to sixfold and left European defence manufacturers struggling to secure magnets for missile guidance systems.

A temporary suspension agreed between Washington and Beijing is due to expire on 10 November 2026, at which point the fuller set of restrictions could snap back into force. In response, the G7 launched a Critical Minerals Alliance in June 2026 committing members to coordinated stockpiling and supply-chain diversification, while the US, EU and others have unveiled parallel initiatives – but independent analysis suggests rebuilding genuinely independent processing capacity could take twenty to thirty years, far longer than the political window currently available.

This event will examine what is actually at stake as the November deadline approaches: how China’s licensing system functions as an instrument of leverage, whether Western commitments to diversify are matched by delivery, and what a supply shock would mean for defence, technology and the wider economy. Is the West’s de-risking strategy a genuine turning point, or a stopgap that leaves it as exposed as ever?

Speakers

Dr Helena Ivanov – Associate Research, Henry Jackson Society

Henry Sanderson – Visiting Fellow, University of Cambridge

Rob Clark – Head of Defence, 878

Amanda Van Dyke – Founder, Critical Minerals Hub