Report

Breaking Blue: Why the Conservatives suffered a catastrophic election defeat and the route back

Think tank: Onward

Author(s): Various authors

September 29, 2024

This report from UK think tank Onward examines why the Conservatives suffered a catastrophic election defeat and the route back.

Breaking Blue, the largest UK post-election study of its kind, reveals the short, medium, and longer-term causes of the historic outcome and the route back to power for the centre-right.

In a major collaboration with Focaldata and JL Partners, Onward has conducted comprehensive quantitative and qualitative research with over 24,000 participants. The Conservative vote collapsed at the last election, retaining just half of its 2019 support. It suffered a defeat across all major demographic divides including age, ethnicity, social class, and Brexit preference, losing 23% of its vote to Reform UK and 7% to the Liberal Democrats.

Several layers of the 2019 coalition were stripped back, with the party’s support base becoming the oldest it has ever been, with the “cross-over” point where voters are more likely to vote Conservative rising to a historic 64. Geographically the party was paired back to its strongest heartlands.

After the landmark events of Partygate and Liz Truss’s mini-budget the party’s reputation for competence and honesty was damaged beyond repair, making the 2024 election almost unwinnable. The election campaign itself failed to improve matters for the party, with negative news stories such as Rishi Sunak’s exit from D-Day dominating and the election being seen through Labour’s narrative of “ending the chaos.”