Report

European defence autonomy

This report from UK think tank the Henry Jackson Society identifies key companies and projects to replace US capabilities.

Europe’s growing interest in diversifying away from US defence systems is rooted in strategic unease. The Ukraine war has reignited discussions on European defence integration, yet tensions persist between the financial costs and national autonomy such integration entails. Moreover, rising concerns about a more transactional US stance – especially under another Trump Administration – have compelled EU leaders to reconsider their dependence on American security guarantees.

To meet this challenge, the EU’s “Readiness 2030” package proposes a sweeping financial strategy: up to €800 billion in order to bolster its defence industrial base. This framework includes activating an exemption to EU budget rules, launching a €150 billion SAFE loan facility for joint procurement, reallocating cohesion funds, easing European Investment Bank restrictions and inviting private capital – creating a comprehensive funding ecosystem.

Despite this ambition, Europe continues to depend heavily on American capabilities – ranging from precision strike systems and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) to heavy artillery, ammunition and drones. Although EU states cumulatively allocate roughly a third of what the US spends on defence, they possess only around 10% of US-comparable capacity and, prior to Readiness 2030, nearly two-thirds of procurement went to US suppliers. This dependence poses both strategic and economic challenges. Operationally, European forces lack autonomy, particularly in high-intensity conflict scenarios, without US systems.

Economically, large flows of defence spending to foreign suppliers curtail domestic innovation, job creation and long-term industrial and strategic resilience. Europe is needing to move away from the “Just in Time” defence manufacturing model.

The Henry Jackson Society has documented how these Russian military intelligence-linked activities represent a systematic campaign of subversion, aimed at undermining European security through covert action, infrastructure disruption and information warfare. Far from being a distant threat, these actions confirm that Europe is already under assault – and must be capable of responding on its own terms.