Great expectations in hard times?
Think tank: Resolution Foundation
Author(s): Emily Fry; Cara Pacitti; James Smith
October 14, 2024
This report from UK think tank the Resolution Foundation will preview the big decisions for the Chancellor in the new Government’s first Budget.
In this briefing note, we put the big decisions faced by Chancellor in the new Government’s pivotal first Budget into context, discussing the new – and old – spending pressures faced, how the economic outlook has changed, and what all means for the public finances.
This month’s Budget – the first delivered by a Labour Chancellor in nearly 15 years and the first ever by a woman – will be historic, revealing the new Government’s priorities and setting its economic direction for the rest of this Parliament. But while it’s all change in Whitehall, the problems of the country as a whole remain much the same: growth since the financial crisis has been weaker than in any comparable period since the Great Depression. The Chancellor has issued a bold diagnosis and prescription: “growth is the challenge and investment is the solution.”
So, in this briefing note we examine how that outlook has changed since the March 2024 Budget, focusing on the economy and the public finances. We then consider what that means for the policy choices faced by the new Government at this defining fiscal event.