How a surge in defence and dual-use technology investment could reconfigure the global AI race
Think tank: Chatham House
Author(s): Katja Bego
April 28, 2026
This report from UK think tank Chatham House explores four important trends that have accelerated in the past year and which could start a shift towards a multipolar AI market.
The AI race is often presented as one between the US and China, with other countries having little to no chance of catching up. Geopolitical tensions and recent trends towards defence-driven innovation and tech sovereignty may soon challenge that assumption.
As the global security order deteriorates, countries worldwide are becoming increasingly concerned that, in a more hostile, transactional world, overreliance on others for pivotal technologies like AI is a source of troubling vulnerability. This fear has led to a growing number of countries seeking alternatives with greater urgency, even if these solutions do not always perform at the cutting edge.
This research paper argues that these dynamics may lead to a more securitized and fragmented global AI industry, which will make it more difficult for the two current leaders to dominate either the value chain or the technology’s wider rollout.
To understand how this scenario may come about, the paper explores four important trends that have accelerated in the past year, and which could start a shift towards a multipolar AI market. The paper concludes by outlining the main implications of these trends, before providing recommendations for private actors on how to prepare.
