Iran nuclear monitor
Think tank: European Council on Foreign Relations
Author(s): Ellie Geranmayeh
May 18, 2026
This report from UK think tank the ECFR monitors Iran’s nuclear programme.
This regularly updated Iran nuclear monitor is developed in consultation with nuclear security experts, drawing on open-source intelligence, IAEA statements and satellite imagery analysis.
Indicators track distinct, observable activities or declarations of intent—for example, diplomacy, enrichment or official nuclear policy—that collectively allow readers to assess which of the six scenarios is most strongly reflected by current evidence. The scenarios are designed to span the spectrum of most realistic outcomes for Iran’s nuclear programme following the US-Israeli strikes of 2025, ranging from a negotiated cap to covert weaponisation.
No single indicator is conclusive on its own; the monitor is designed to be read across the full matrix. It is updated periodically as new intelligence and reporting become available.
