Report

Jumping the gun: racing to 2030 before the field is set

This report from UK think tank Onward examines the implications of racing towards clean energy by 2030, assessed through planning reform and public support.

The expansion of clean energy generation is critical for securing Britain’s energy future, but a practical and achievable pathway is needed to deliver a decarbonised grid. Labour’s plan to reach clean power by 2030 is one of the most ambitious energy policies globally, aiming for a rapid expansion of onshore wind and solar. But while increasing generation is essential, the UK risks undermining its own targets if it does not ensure that transmission infrastructure keeps pace. Without urgent action, Britain will generate more clean power than it can transmit and therefore use— destabilising energy security and increasing costs for consumers.

The UK’s electricity generation capacity is expanding faster than the transmission network’s ability to distribute power where it is needed. Twice as much grid infrastructure must be built in the next five years as was constructed over the last decade if the UK is to meet its 2030 targets. Yet transmission projects face significant delays, particularly due to local opposition, which is even more pronounced for overground power lines. Delays to just three critical transmission projects in East Anglia and the South East are projected to cost UK consumers £4.2 billion by 2030, as energy that could power homes and businesses instead goes unused. If these issues are not addressed, constraint payments—compensation paid to generators when power cannot be transported—could rise from £0.5-1 billion annually in 2022 to as much as £4 billion per year by the end of the decade.

Beyond technical and financial challenges, the rollout of renewable energy infrastructure risks eroding public support for the transition if fairness and proportionality are not properly considered. Some communities that have already accepted large-scale renewable developments are being asked to take on even more, often with little consultation and no clear local benefits. Research from Onward’s Jumping the Gun report highlights that many of the areas with the most feasible land for new projects are also those that have hosted the largest share of renewables since 1990. Without a more strategic and equitable approach, the risk of increased local resistance could derail the entire clean energy target.

The upcoming Planning and Infrastructure Bill presents a crucial opportunity to address delays and ensure that grid expansion keeps pace with generation. Focus has thus far prioritised generation without acknowledging the simultaneous importance of transmission infrastructure.

The shift to clean energy is vital for Britain’s economic and environmental future, but it must be managed in a way that is both practical and fair. Without urgent action on transmission networks and community engagement, Labour’s 2030 target risks being undermined by local opposition, wasted investment, and rising costs for consumers. Delivering a truly decarbonised grid requires more than just ambitious targets—it demands a credible plan to get there.