Opposition in Russia to the invasion of Ukraine

Think tank: The Henry Jackson Society

Author(s): Nicholas Chkhaidze; Ivan Yurov; Taras Kuzio

June 23, 2022

This report from UK think tank the Henry Jackson Society looks at how much of a threat opposition in Russia to the Ukraine invasion is to Putin’s regime?

Vladimir Putin is terrified of telling the Russian public the truth: namely, that he has de facto launched a full-blown war against Russia’s neighbour – Ukraine, according to a new think tank report. In a new paper, released today by the Henry Jackson Society, a panel of authors has found that the siloviki, descendants of the senior ranks of the former Soviet KGB, military and military intelligence (GRU) who have captured the Russian state and run it as their militocracy, could pose a serious risk of triggering a coup against the Russian despot. The paper goes on to argue that Putin’s conundrum lies in the fact that the “special military operation” was understood by the Kremlin to be a short-term military action but, as it was initially constituted, it was not sufficiently powerful to defeat the Ukrainian army. Putin is now clearly concerned that transforming the “special military operation” into a declaration of war against Ukraine and fully mobilising the Russian Army would be unpopular, both domestically and internationally, and could threaten the foundations of his regime.