Report

Russia’s malicious migration: Predicting the use of instrumentalised migration against NATO and the EU

This report from UK think tank the Henry Jackson Society examines whether there are conditions under which instrumentalised migration is more likely to be used.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has unleashed brutality that Europe has not seen for decades. In addition to conventional war, new tactics and technologies have been used, such as drones and AI-enabled misinformation campaigns. But one tactic that requires further attention is “instrumentalised migration”, a new and relatively poorly understood tactic. While there is an awareness that the tactic is being used, no group has been able to predict the conditions under which hostile powers will resort to its use. This means that NATO and other actors remain vulnerable to instrumentalised migration and cannot prepare for incidents.

The HJS set out to examine whether there are conditions under which instrumentalised migration is more likely to be used. If these conditions can be identified, then it would allow NATO to better prepare for future uses of instrumentalised migration when similar conditions are present. Our hypotheses were as follows:

1) Russia would be more likely to use instrumentalised migration in response to being sanctioned by the EU and the US.

2) Russia would be more likely to use instrumentalised migration when it sustained battlefield reversals such as loss of personnel, loss of territory or attacks on Russia itself by Ukraine.

To test these hypotheses, we collected data from the European Union (EU) border agency FRONTEX, which has data on the number of migrants at Europe’s borders. Next, we compiled a timeline of EU and US sanctions rounds. Furthermore, we collected estimates of Russian battlefield losses from Ukrainian sources in terms of personnel, and territorial change events and attacks on Russian territory from Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED).