The cost of Brexit, ten years on
Think tank: Centre for European Reform
Author(s): John Springford; Anton Spisak
June 18, 2026
This report from UK think tank the Centre for European Reform examines the impact of leaving the customs union and single market on UK trade.
A new CER modelling exercise shows that Brexit has substantially reduced the UK’s trade with the EU, both in goods and services. We find that a customs union with the EU would do little to recover those losses.
A decade after the British public voted to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum, the debate about Britain’s relationship with the bloc is shifting gears.
After many years of keeping quiet about the costs of Brexit, British politicians on the centre-left have become more vocal. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said that Brexit did “deep damage to our economy” and that his Labour government will be “defined by rebuilding our relationship with Europe”. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has described better trading relations with the EU as “the biggest prize” for reviving economic growth and argued that Britain should align with EU rules when doing so brings economic benefits.
