Report

The EU and Turkiye: Can shared threats overcome mutual suspicion?

This report from UK think tank the Centre for European Reform sets out some steps that the EU and Türkiye can take to reset ties.

EU-Türkiye relations are stuck in a mutually detrimental stalemate. Low mutual trust and high transactionalism mean deeper co-operation has effectively stalled for two decades. This comes despite common threats and challenges posed by Russia, the US, and China, and potential joint security and economic co-operation between the EU and Türkiye to address these threats.

A new policy brief, ‘The EU and Türkiye: Can shared threats overcome mutual suspicion?’, authored by Thomas Maddock, sets out some steps that the EU and Türkiye can take to reset ties.

On security, Türkiye and the EU should build up institutional engagement, through an annual dialogue between the Enlargement Commissioner and her Turkish counterparts. This informal dialogue should be flexible to avoid national vetoes, but regularly held to maintain institutional buy-in; initial stages could focus on Levant stability, Black Sea security, and defence industrial co-operation.

On defence industrial co-operation, Türkiye’s considerable manufacturing capacity could fill critical gaps in the EU’s defence industrial supply chains, including uncrewed aerial, surface, and ground vehicles. Even if Türkiye is unable to participate in EU-level defence industrial schemes such as SAFE, more can be done at the national level between EU member-states and Türkiye.