Report

The evolution of Russian and Chinese air power threats

Think tank: RUSI

Author(s): Justin Bronk

January 8, 2026

This report from UK think tank RUSI discusses the evolution of Russian and Chinese air power threats.

This Insights Paper demonstrates that in 2025, Chinese air power in particular poses a fundamentally different level of threat to traditional US dominance in the air domain than it did in 2020.

Russian air power has evolved in a different way and to a lesser extent – its evolution is driven largely by the pressures of Russia’s long war against Ukraine.

However, Russian air power still represents a greater threat to Western air power capabilities in Europe than it did prior to the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.