Report

The evolution of Russian nuclear doctrine

This report from UK think tank RUSI examine trends in Russia’s nuclear weapons strategy with a particular focus on substrategic nuclear weapons.

In this paper, the evolution of Russian nuclear doctrine is examined, focusing on the implications of recent geopolitical developments, Russia’s nuclear strategy and its flexibility in employing nuclear weapons. The purpose of this paper is to examine trends in Russia’s nuclear weapons strategy, policy and planning, with a particular focus on substrategic nuclear weapons.

The paper focuses on two contexts: Russia’s new declaratory policy regarding the war in Ukraine. The changing structure of the international system as it relates to nuclear powers, due to the emergence of China as a third nuclear peer, alongside the US and Russia. The paper discusses the factors that might lead to both consistency and change in Russian nuclear planning.