
What does the US election mean for Europe’s economy?
Think tank: Centre for European Reform
Author(s): Aslak Berg; Zach Meyers
October 3, 2024
This report from UK think tank the Centre for European Reform argues that the EU should deepen trade ties with the US and boost transatlantic co-operation.
The EU-US economic relationship is the world’s most important. For the European economy, the US election has high stakes.
The CER’s new policy brief ‘Surviving Trump 2.0: What does the US election mean for Europe’s economy?’ argues that European leaders risk becoming complacent with Kamala Harris’s current success in the polls. Policy-makers are fixated on Trump’s proposal for across-the-board tariffs and his obsession with the US trade deficit with Europe. But under both Harris and Trump, the fundamental economic dilemmas facing Europe will remain the same. The EU’s economy remains dependent on imports from China, while being increasingly dependent on the US to soak up its exports. As the US pushes the EU to join in it decoupling from China, and potentially a broader trade war, can the EU’s business model survive?
The policy brief argues that the EU should take the offensive. It should deepen trade ties with the US and boost transatlantic co-operation, in order to boost the flagging European economy. But it must also work to reduce its vulnerability to coercion from both the US and China, and secure closer co-operation with other countries to help collectively defend freer trade despite Washington’s growing protectionism.