UK Economic Outlook: Stability first
This report from UK think tank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research analyses the UK economic outlook in the autumn of 2025. The Autumn Budget comes at a pivotal moment for the UK economy. Growth has held up better than expected, inflation is expected to ease, and interest rates are likely to begin...
The Chancellor’s Trilemma
This report from UK think tank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research analyses the UK economic outlook in the summer of 2025. The Government is on track to miss its ‘stability rule’ by £41.2bn in the fiscal year 2029-30 due to higher-than-expected public sector borrowing, the reversal of cuts to welfare, and weaker-than-expected...
UK Living Standards Review 2025
This report from UK think tank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research looks at living standards in the UK. The United Kingdom is currently neither a high-wage nor a high-welfare country, leaving millions trapped between low wages and inadequate support. The research estimates that around half of the stagnation in real wages can...
A tale of two halves
This report from UK think tank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research anticipates a 1.5% growth for 2025. The measures announced in the Chancellor’s October 2024 Budget, which will start having a tangible effect during the course of 2025, coupled with continued growth in business investment will lead to a 1.5 per cent...
PFI: Getting the bill on the fiscal credit card
This report from UK think tank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research Private Finance explores the use and impact of PFI. Initiative (PFI) continues to have a legacy in the public sector, with repayment costs being 3.3 times larger on average than the value of the infrastructure they built. The report explores the...
Subdued growth in a challenging fiscal landscape
This report from UK think tank National Institute of Economic and Social Research examines subdued growth in a challenging fiscal landscape. Despite a strong start for economic growth in the first half of the year, we anticipate that UK GDP growth is likely to remain around its trend rate of 1 per cent over 2024...
Response to the Autumn 2024 Budget
This report from UK think tank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research discusses their response to the Autumn 2024 Budget. This is a landmark Budget, the first to be delivered by a Labour government for 14 years, that that sets the tone for fiscal policy over the course of this Parliament. There are...
The aspiration for public investment
This report from UK think tank the NIESR recommends targeted public investment projects in key areas such as housing, transport connectivity, education and skills. Analysis of the UK finds that, over the last five years, the gap in living standards between the prosperous parts of the United Kingdom and poorer areas has widened, and productivity...
A pre-election gloom
This report from UK think tank NIESR provides a quarterly economic forecast of the UK economy. Continued anaemic UK GDP trend growth, at about 1 per cent, together with inflation coming back to target, means that the winner of the next general election will have to raise taxes to maintain the existing provision of public...
Productivity and investment: time to manage the project of renewal
This report from UK think tank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research aims to address the policy question of how to raise UK investment. This report aims to address the policy question of how to raise UK investment in order to meet the long-standing challenge of a slowing in productivity growth. The paper...