Bracing for 2025: The UK and European security under a Trump presidency
Think tank: RUSI
Author(s): Professor Malcolm Chalmers
April 1, 2024
This report from UK think tank RUSI examines the possibility of Donald Trump’s potentially radical programme of change.
This paper examines the possibility of Donald Trump’s potentially radical programme of change, both at home and abroad, with a focus on the US foreign policy programme.
It outlines the economic factors underpinning US defence and security and explores the question of alliances, especially in relation to Ukraine.
The paper concludes with an overview of the impact of a second Trump presidency on UK and European defence priorities. If Donald Trump were to be re-elected this year, a rapid reduction in US aid to Ukraine seems probable. European allies could also face the prospect that the US’s commitment to NATO might be ended, or at least substantially reduced.
Even if a Democrat is returned to the White House, they will face the reality of a US defence budget that is both fiscally constrained and increasingly stretched geographically.
