Navigating the storm?
Think tank: Centre for European Reform
Author(s): Luigi Scazzieri
July 10, 2024
This report from UK think tank the Centre for European Reform sets out the risks of a second Trump presidency for the UK and the EU.
As Donald Trump eyes a return to the White House, UK and EU policy-makers are bracing for disruption. A second Trump presidency would lead to extensive transatlantic turbulence. Trump’s negative view of NATO, his scepticism about support for Ukraine and his trade protectionism are well known. Trump would also be more familiar with the levers of power in a second term, while Russia’s war on Ukraine means that the stakes for European security are much higher than before.
A new policy brief from the Centre for European Reform, kindly supported by the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) UK & Ireland, assesses the possible impact of a Trump presidency on transatlantic relations, European security, and the UK-EU relationship.
‘Navigating the storm? The EU, the UK and Trump 2.0’ sets out the risks of a second Trump presidency for the UK and the EU. It analyses how the EU and the UK are thinking about and preparing for the prospect of a second Trump presidency and assesses how Trump’s return could affect UK-EU relations. The key findings are:
Many in the EU and UK hope that Trump could be managed and that it will ultimately be possible to steer him away from his worst instincts and to persuade him to continue supporting NATO and Ukraine. At the same time, EU and UK policymakers are also hedging against disruption. Defence spending is on the rise, and both the EU and the UK are trying to Trump-proof support for Ukraine. Discussions are ongoing about strengthening NATO’s European pillar and expanding the EU’s role in supporting the European defence industry.
A Trump Presidency might facilitate a broader UK-EU rapprochement, particularly if Britain feels isolated and squeezed by the economic hit from a Trump trade war and the EU’s own response to it. However, deeper UK-EU co-operation would not be automatic: the UK and its European partners would need to be creative in finding new ways to work together.
