Report

Transforming Belarus from a Russian asset to a buffer state for European security

This report from UK think tank Chatham House explores how the West should engage with Minsk.

Western discussions of Belarus’s role in regional security have largely considered Minsk as part of broader approaches towards Moscow, rather than as a policy strand in its own right.

However, in 2025, the US under President Donald Trump disrupted that trend by initiating a direct dialogue with Belarusian head of state Aliaksandr Lukashenka. This change of approach has already had some success, most notably with the release of more than 100 Belarusian political prisoners in December.

It has also reopened debate on what the EU and European NATO countries, including the UK, should do. Ignoring Belarus could have severe consequences for the security of both Ukraine and NATO. Russia views Belarus as a strategic asset in its confrontation with the West. But Western governments cannot afford to consign the country to that role. They must instead encourage Belarus towards a more neutral stance, and ensure that neutrality becomes sustainable for the long term.

This paper therefore argues for the adoption of a clear-sighted policy on Belarus, distinct from that on Russia. Specific recommendations include conditional engagement with the Lukashenka regime and some sanctions relief, as well as longer-term efforts to increase both Western soft power influence and support for those in the regime – and outside it – willing to pursue a neutral (or ‘pro-Belarus’) security policy.