Two years (and ten years) of war in Europe
Think tank: Centre for European Reform
Author(s): Ian Bond; Zach Meyers; Luigi Scazzieri; Sander Tordoir
March 7, 2024
This report from UK think tank the Centre for European Reform suggests that the EU should ensure Ukraine can weather the war without US support.
Two years since Putin launched his full-scale attack on Ukraine and ten years after the annexation of Crimea, this third year of war looks set to be the toughest yet for Ukraine.
In a new policy brief, ‘Two years (and ten years) of war in Europe: Hard times for Ukraine’, researchers at the Centre for European Reform (CER) urge Europe to disprove Putin’s belief that, if he waits long enough, the US will stop supporting Ukraine, Europe will follow the US, and Ukraine will have no choice but to surrender. There are plenty of reasons for pessimism. Though Ukraine has had surprising success at sea, there was little progress on land in 2023. American military aid is slowing, and the re-election of Donald Trump in Autumn would likely see it cut off completely.
The war has affected European economies, especially Germany’s, and they have struggled to produce enough equipment and munitions. Meanwhile Russia’s economy, now on a war footing, appears more resilient than Western governments expected.
There are hurdles within Ukraine too. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s popularity has fallen slightly since the beginning of the war and if his military reshuffle doesn’t produce results, popular dissatisfaction may grow. Putin will win Russia’s election in March and Russian resistance to the war has been successfully, and brutally, repressed for the most part.
Ukraine’s situation is far from hopeless, however. In the short term, the CER team suggests that the EU should ensure Ukraine can weather the war without US support by stepping up supplies of weapons, systems and munitions.
